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An Analysis of the Backcountry Recreation Industry of the Washington Cascades in the Face of Climate Change
Thomas Kakatsakis
Abstract
The Cascades mountains of the Pacific Northwest are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and increases in temperature have led to decreased snow and an uncertain future. A reduced snowpack has significant ramifications for the evolving ski and backcountry Winter recreation industry in Washington state. This research considers a changing natural landscape and its hydrological processes in the face of global climate change, from the lens of backcountry recreation. Geospatial analysis quantifies the extent to which the snowpack of the Cascades has been impacted by temperature increases using snow data from the NOHRSC and SNOTEL sites, and models its future state given predicted climate scenarios. The dynamics of winter backcountry recreation are discussed including increased usage, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, avalanche awareness and risk, and the existential threat to Pacific Northwest Winter recreation when mountain snowfall becomes rain.
Introduction
This study investigates the effects of projected temperature increases on the snowpack of the Washington Cascades with respect to backcountry recreation. The Cascade Range within the Pacific Northwest receives a high volume of precipitation, much of it falling as snow at medium to high elevations during the Winter season. Springtime melt from the Winter snowfall is an important component to the region's hydrological cycles, and these processes have undergone disruptions from diminished snowfall amounts in the long term. This is attributed to increased temperatures resulting from global climate change, creating a diminished mountain snowpack in the region among other significant impacts. The driving force behind this temperature change is increases in atmospheric CO2, reaching levels above 405 parts per million in 2019 after being less than 300 ppm for at least 800,000 years (Snover 2019, IPCC Special Report and Implications for Washington State). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has warned that current rates of warming will continue, reaching global levels of 1.5° C warmer as soon as the year 2030 (Snover 2019), and much higher by the end of the century. The damaging effects of this warming are severe for the maritime climate of Washington state, including projected sea level rise, increased very hot days, and a reduced snowpack leading to water shortages and winter recreation losses. This study will specifically address the impacts of climate change on the snowpack of the Cascades, and its implications for backcountry winter recreation in the area.
Backcountry recreation on snow requires adequate snow depth within mountainous areas, and is an increasingly popular activity as well as a highly lucrative component of the winter sports industry. A greatly reduced snowpack will have significant ramifications for backcountry recreation, an activity which will be considered for its economic and societal significance in Washington state. The maritime snowpack of the Washington Cascades is especially susceptible to climate change due to mild temperatures hovering at or near the freezing level, and lower elevation recreation locations are at the greatest risk in the short term. Areas such Snoqualmie Pass, a highly popular access point for resort skiing and backcountry recreation which sits at an elevation just over 3000 feet, may no longer be viable for winter recreation in the coming decades as a greater percentage of Winter precipitation falls as rain instead of snow. Additionally, the extent of glaciers in the Cascades Range has already decreased substantially, and many will disappear completely as ablation from warm temperatures continuously outweighs accumulation from snowfall. Glaciated areas allow for a uniquely long ski season in the Cascades into the summer months, and as they melt this will no longer be possible. The rapid changes in snowpack are juxtaposed with increasingly popular backcountry recreation in the state. More people than ever are backcountry skiing, snowboarding, snowmobiling, snowshoeing, or other forms of recreation on snow. Ski touring specifically has seen an unprecedented increase in popularity in 2020, in part due to uncertainty and restrictions at ski resorts due to the COVID-19 pandemic and a growing outdoor movement. The industry will undoubtedly undergo significant changes as a result of increased usage and a diminishing snowpack, and this study will address and discuss the future of winter backcountry recreation in the Washington Cascades.
Research Context
The impacts of increased temperatures and the future of the backcountry recreation industry in Washington fills a niche subject area. Reviewing the existing literature, relevant publications place the hydrological processes of the Pacific Northwest into the context of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s reports (Roop et. al. 2020, Snover et. al. 2019). Additionally, academic studies quantify the observed and expected changes to snowpack in mountain environments (Helgason 2016; Sproles et. al. 2013; Mote et. al. 2018), though models vary greatly in their inputs and results and there is little consensus as to the exact timeframes or extent to which snowpack in the region will decrease.
From the perspective of the ski industry, Washington is highly vulnerable to the impacts of increased temperatures. Protect Our Winters, a climate advocate nonprofit, has published several reports describing the economic losses to the ski industry due to climate change. In response to low snow years, they have found that Washington has shown a 31% reduction of skier visits and an average difference of negative 92 million dollars value added, which is the greatest and second greatest loss of any U.S. state respectively (Hagenstad et. al. 2018). Little research has been published addressing the impacts of backcountry specific recreation, and my project seeks to fill this gap. The unprecedented increase in backcountry usage this year has been well documented from news sources such as the Seattle Times (Scruggs 2020), however this outlook for the industry in the face of climate change has not been addressed. No comprehensive published research has tied together the decreased snowpack of Washington, the economic contributions of backcountry recreation in the state, and the changing industry and its future.
Methods
A mixed-methods, holistic research approach is applied to incorproate existing resources about changes in the snowpack of the Cascades Mountains and backcountry recreation within them, and provide analysis of the outlook of the industry. Existing hydrological models, climate scenarios and snow-science research is drawn upon to develop a picture of the long-term state of the snowpack, and the impacts of anthropogenic climate change in the region. Geospatial analysis is applied to remotely sensed and modelled snow data from several sources. This data is visualized, manipulated, and mapped across several spatial and temporal resolutions within Washington, through a combination of data analysis using Python Jupyter Notebooks and ArcGIS Pro spatial analysis. In addition to a quantitative examiniation of availabile snow data, the backcountry Winter sports industry of Washington state is discussed including changing demographics and usage, economic impacts, and avalanche hazard and risk mitigation. Personal experience in the backcountry and a passion for the outdoors is the lens through which existing media, research, first-hand perspectives and other mediums are considered to understand the changes occuring to the backcountry recreation industry. This wide range of multidisciplinary studies and information is used to contextualize the significance of backcountry recreation in Washington State and consider how it will inevitably change in the near future. The results of these methods are displayed on this website and presented at the University of Washington 2021 Undergraduate Research Symposium.
Findings
Substantial and ongoing changes are observed in the study subjects, areas, and time frames being considered. The snowpack and hydrology of the Cascades mountains has undoutably been disrupted as a result of human created climate change. The most notable indicators of these impacts are the overall measured decreases in end of Winter season snow water equivilent and Winter snowfall totals at individual sites, observed decrease in snow depth and cover from remotely sensed data and snow models, and the well-recorded massive retreat of glaciers across the range. The ramifications of these changes are diminshed fresh-water sources from snowpack runoff, increased risk of wildfire due to reduced soil moisture increasing fire potential, and losses in backcountry Winter recreation from a lack of snow.
Backcountry Winter recreation in Washington is an evolving activity with substantial economic and cultural value. Rapid growth in popularity and usage has led to issues of overcrowding in the mountains in the Winter, and the industry is in a state of transition. The impacts of societal factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the effects of social media have changed the number of people in the outdoors, and the time, location and activity they are choosing to recreate with. New challenges arise with these changes, and the inherent dangers of the activities create a situation where education, awareness, and crowd mitigation are neccesary for the community. The impacts of increased avalanche fatalities, overwhelmed search and rescue, and filled up trailheads must be addressed as the sports evolve. Despite these challenges, more people than ever are enjoying the natural beauty of the mountains and the allure of backcountry Winter recreation.
A diminished snowpack creates widespread and damaging implications for the region. End of Winter season snowpack, typically measured on April 1st, is expected to decrease by 40% by the 2050s. Snow water equivilent on April 1st is expected to become 0 for much of the range by the end of the century. And low elevation mountainous areas between 2000-4000 will have highly variable and inadequate snowpack in the coming decade. From the lens of backcountry recreation, a disappearing snowpack represents an existential threat to the activity. Washington is especially susceptible to increased temperatures and will be one of the first places whose backcountry industry will be signifigantly impacted by climate change. Dimished snowpack will alter the time and place that people can recreate in the backcountry. The mountains are not going anywhere, but the means in which they are experienced by people will evolve with the changing climate.
Discussion and Conclusion
The implications of global climate change are only beginning to be felt. The Pacific Northwest is highly vulnerable to the expected impacts on the Earth's cryosphere, and will undergo signifigant changes during the next century and beyond. One of the most notable will be major losses in the maritime mountain snowpack, a resource of profound value as a resevoir of our fresh water, the source of our river, and the means for many activities in the backcountry. The snowpack of the Cascades, on a long-term scale, will transition from abundance to scarcity. Mountains once consistently blanketed with snow and ice for half of the year, will become completely bare by the end of the Winter. The natural landscapes, lush vegetation, diverse animal populations, and the human residents of the Pacific Northwest will all react and respond to the new normals, but the area will be forever altered.
Snowpack is an inherently fleeting and transitioning natural process, in a constant state of precipitation and melting and growing and shrinking with the seasons. Low snow years are not uncommon events and variability in climate is a common phenomenon. Despite this, the observed trends based on decades of snowpack telemetry and monitoring and the predictions of climate models and top experts suggest that a more monumental shift is currently occuring. Simply put, the snowpack will greatly diminish, with the Winter season starting later, ending early, storing less water, and possibly failing to be established at all. Low elevation mountains specifically will cease to have a consistent snowpack in the Winter months. My research considers how this will impact backcountry recreation. Many of the areas which have exploded in popularity in only the last couple of years won't have enough snowpack for backcountry activities in the future. Snoqualmie Pass, the closest area for skiing to the Seattle area, home to compelx backcountry terrain and several ski resorts, is unlikely to have adequate snow even in the coming decades. Backcountry recreationalists will have to look further for snow, and activities including ski touring, splitboarding, snowshoeing, alpine climbing, snowmobiling, and others will transition to match the new state of the landscape.
Backcountry recreation on snow is as popular as it has ever been in Washington, and the industry is undertaking massive switches even when ignoring the warming planet. Most notably is rapid increases in usages and popularity, which is associated with additional challenges in the mountains. Industry stakeholders and members of the backcountry community must respond to these changes to ensure a conservation of resources and adequate safety precautions are being taken. An emphasis on self-sufficiency, preparation, and knowledge regarding backcountry conditions and avalanche danger are all essential components for the newcomers to backcountry recreation. Additionally, services including search and rescue, outdoor education, and avalanche forecasting must recieve adequate funding to support and sustain the growing backcountry participation. The outdoors provide tremendous benefits to many peoples lives, and with the threat of a dimishing snowpack it is more important than ever to get people outside safely to enjoy backcountry Winter recreation well they still can.
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